Luggable Media: Sneakernet Can Provide a Stepping Stone to Download, Synch, & Go

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Executive Summary
*Luggable Media for Portability, DVDs for Archives
* Billion at Retail By 2010
Methodology
Previous Reports that Provide Useful Background Information
Portable Electronic Entertainment Emerges as the Next Big Thing
*Flash Drives and Microdisks Will Gradually Rise Up Alongside Optical Media
Portable Optical Formats, Like Sony’s UMD, Are Emerging
CDs and DVDs Will Be Seen as Archiving Products
Sneakernet Will Emerge as an Important Stepping Stone to Enable Portable Electronic Entertainment
The Age of Home Theater Sets Portability In Motion
Large Screen TVs and Surround Sound Are Proliferating
Personal Computers Are “Connecting” to HDTV Displays
But a Parallel Universe Is Developing for Portable Entertainment
Personal Computers Are Becoming Home Entertainment Hubs that Can Connect to Many Things
The Connected Digital Home Is Coming
Intel’s Viiv™ Entertainment PC Architecture
Apple’s iMac Line Morphing onto an Intel Platform
Apple’s iPod Points the Way for Luggable Media In the Future
Microsoft MediaCenter Edition Adding Portable Players
Personal Computers Can Be Used to “Write” to Various Media
Personal Computers’ Abilities to Connect to So Many Things Leads to Portable Devices
PCs Provide Multiple Types of In-Home Network Connectivity
PC Cluster
Entertainment Center Cluster
Intra-Room Networks
Inter-Room Networks
Each Network Has Three “Flavors”
Wired In-Home Networks
Internet Protocol (IP) Approaches Favored by the PC Industry
Non-IP Approaches Can Also Be Implemented
Wireless In-Home Networks
Sneakernet In-Home Networks Using “Luggable Media”
Sneakernet Media Can Also Move Outside of the Home!
High Definition Video Favors Sneakernet In the Short Run
Usage Models for Portable Electronic Entertainment
Any Content to Any Place on Any Device at Any Time
Two-Foot Viewing Experience
Two-Foot Viewing Experience “On the Go”
Ten-Foot Viewing Experience
Ten-Foot Viewing Experience “On the Go”
Portable Viewing Experience Is Already “On the Go”
Playing Back Portable Content on a Big-Screen TV Display
*Enter Sneakernet—the Low-Cost, Convenient Solution
“Luggable Media” Puts the Content In Your Pocket!
Standardized, Low-Cost Players Will Make It Happen
Five Methods for Content to Get to a Viewing Device
*“Live,” Two-Way Video and Voice for Interactive Communications
*“Live,” One-Way Video and Audio for Entertainment Distribution
Multi-Room Digital Video Recorders (DVRs) as an Example
Amimon’s Wireless High Definition TV Interface (WHDI™)
Intel’s Viiv™ Architecture Supports “Live” One-Way Services
Next-Generation Networks and MIMO Technologies Help
*The Store & Forward Approaches Do Not Require QoS
*Store & Forward Video for Initial Storage In a Server
*Store & Forward Video for Distribution to Viewing Devices
*Archiving Technologies for Long-Term Storage and Later Retrieval
What Luggable Media Means for the Content Industry
The Consumer Market Is Fragmenting Down to “An Audience of One”
Original Content Will Be Sold with Optional Upgrades to Pay for Portability Rights and Managed Copy Privileges
Luggable Media Provides Opportunities to Connect with Your Customers Beyond the Initial Moment of Sale
An Example Using HD-DVD’s Managed Copy Feature
The PC Industry Is Becoming a Force to Be Reckoned With
If It’s On a PC, It’s Coming to a Cell Phone Soon
Consumer Electronics Products Will Follow the PC Example
*How Will Luggable Media Impact Sales of DVDs?
"Luggable Media”—It Has To Fit In Your Pocket and Survive to be Played
Luggable Media Must Support 2 Gigabytes of Capacity
Luggable Media Must Support Video Recording and Playback
Luggable Media Must Support DRM and Copy Protection
CDs and DVDs Are Not “Luggable Media,” by Our Definition
Small Form Factor Packaged Goods Are Luggable Media
Small Form Factor Packaged Goods Covered In Other Reports
*Luggable Media Used Mainly for Sneakernet
Luggable Media is a Subset of Portable Storage Products
Secure Disc SD™ Memory Devices
SanDisk’s Gruvi MicroSD™ Product Foreshadows Luggable Media by Providing the Rolling Stones “Bigger Bang” Album with Enhancements
Memory Stick® Memory Devices
USB Flash Drives
One-Inch Hard Disk Drives
Households Likely to Use Luggable Media
Households Likely to Have a MediaCenter Edition PC
Households Likely to Have a Personal Video Recorder (PVR)
Aggregate Unique Households with an MCE or PVR
North American Luggable Media Market by Category
European Luggable Media Market by Category
Asian Luggable Media Market by Category
ROW Luggable Media Market by Category
Worldwide Luggable Media Market by Category
*Luggable Media Market Value by Region for All Categories Combined
Portomedia Provides An Example

List of Tables
Table 1. Worldwide Value of Luggable Media Device Shipments (US$ in Millions, Annual Growth Rate, Compound Annual Growth Rate [CAGR])
Table 2. Annual Shipments of MediaCenter Edition (MCE) PCs by Region (Annual Unit Shipments in Thousands, Annual Growth Rate, Percent Worldwide Total by Region, CAGR)
Table 3. Number of Households Likely To Be Using an MCE PC by Region (Households in Thousands, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total by Region, CAGR).
Table 4. Annual Shipments of Personal Video Recorders (PVRs) by Region (Annual Unit Shipments in Thousands, Annual Growth Rate, Percent Worldwide Total by Region, CAGR)
Table 5. Number of Households Likely To Be Using A PVR by Region (Households in Thousands, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total by Region, CAGR)
Table 6. Aggregate Number of Unique Households Using An MCE PC or PVR by Region (Unique Households in Thousands, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total by Region, CAGR)
Table 7. Annual Shipments of Luggable Media Devices by Category in North America (Units in Thousands, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)
Table 8. Typical Retail Pricing For Luggable Media Devices by Category in North America (Typical Retail Price in US Dollars)
Table 9. Annual Value of Luggable Media Devices by Category in North America (US$ in Millions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)
Table 10. Annual Shipments of Luggable Media Devices by Category in Europe (Units in Thousands, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)
Table 11. Typical Retail Pricing For Luggable Media Devices by Category in Europe (Typical Retail Price in US Dollars).
Table 12. Annual Value of Luggable Media Devices by Category in Europe (US$ in Millions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)
Table 13. Annual Shipments of Luggable Media Devices by Category in Asia (Units in Thousands, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)
Table 14. Typical Retail Pricing For Luggable Media Devices by Category in Asia (Typical Retail Price in US Dollars)
Table 15. Annual Value of Luggable Media Devices by Category in Asia (US$ in Millions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)
Table 16. Annual Shipments of Luggable Media Devices by Category in the ROW Countries (Units in Thousands, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)
Table 17. Typical Retail Pricing For Luggable Media Devices by Category in the ROW (Typical Retail Price in US Dollars)
Table 18. Annual Value of Luggable Media Devices by Category in the ROW (US$ in Millions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)
Table 19. Annual Shipments of Luggable Media Devices By Category, Worldwide (Units in Thousands, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)
Table 20. Annual Value of Luggable Media Devices by Category, Worldwide (US$ in Millions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)
Table 21. Annual Shipments of All Luggable Media Devices By Category by Region (Units in Thousands, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)
Table 22. Annual Value of All Luggable Media Devices by Region (US$ in Millions, Annual Growth Rate, Percent of Total, CAGR)

List of Figures
Figure 1. Annual Value of Luggable Media Devices by Category in North America (US$ in Millions)
Figure 2. Annual Value of Luggable Media Devices by Category in Europe (US$ in Millions)
Figure 3. Annual Value of Luggable Media Devices by Category in Asia (US$ in Millions)
Figure 4. Annual Value of Luggable Media Devices by Category in the ROW (US$ in Millions)
Figure 5. Annual Value of Luggable Media Devices by Category, Worldwide (US$ in Millions)
Figure 6. Annual Value of All Luggable Media Devices by Region (US$ in Millions)
Report's synopsisAbstract
A funny thing happened on the way to the future of the Connected Digital Home. The storage capacity of re-writeable micro-sized disk drives, Flash memory products, and other portable storage devices is surpassing the storage capacity of next-generation optical discs. The convenience of “luggable media” is such that many of the key usage models being promoted for the Connected Digital Home can be realized earlier using a “sneakernet” approach than can be achieved if the industry has to wait for high-quality in-home networks to become part of the consumer mainstream.
The concept of the Connected Digital Home uses a home server, usually, but not necessarily, a personal computer, to manage and distribute electronic entertainment throughout a residence. Plans call for advanced wired and wireless networks to be installed and proliferate throughout tens of millions of households.
Low-cost portable storage devices can move the content throughout the home via “sneakernet.” It’s possible that consumers may opt in favor of “luggable” media because of its low-cost, its availability, and its convenience.
The worldwide retail value of Luggable Media is forecast to rise from about US1 million during 2006, up to more than US billion during 2010, exhibiting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 176.5% between 2006 and 2010.

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