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Table of Contents
Methodology
What Does 3G Mean in China?
Technical Advantages of 3G Technologies
More Capacity and Better Coverage
Higher Data Transmission Speed
More Efficient Spectrum Usage
Better Voice Quality
*Composition of Wireless Network
Radio Access Network (RAN)
Core Network and Transmission Network (CN/TN)
Service Network (SN)
*Chinese Operators' Road to 3G
*Carriers Divided
Fixed Line Operators
Mobile Incumbents
*Enthusiastic Vendors
Market Trends
*Drivers
Healthy Subscriber Growth
Competition Driven 3G Development
Voice Still Dominating
Wireless Data Services Yet to Take Off
*Barriers
Government Hesitation
SASAC Now at the Helm
Foster Domestic Telecom Industry
TD-SCDMA Commercialization Progresses
Further Delay Could Backfire
Striking a Balance
Grow State Asset Value
Market Uncertain
Voice Market
Mobile Data Market
Increased Competition
*Trends
Changing Business Model
Network Sharing
Mobile Content Provisioning
Handsets
Network Service Providers
Industry Restructuring Still Possible
Emergence of Full Service Providers
Three to Four 3G Licenses
Market Share Development
Profitability Declines
2G CAPEX Up
China Mobile
China Unicom
3G Will Mean Higher CAPEX, But Not By Much
China Mobile
China Telecom
China Unicom
China Netcom
Vendors
Technology Distribution in China
Importance of Handset
Customer Handset Preference
Market Forecast (2005-2015)
*Scenario Analysis
*3G Subscriber Forecast
*3G Service Revenue Forecast
3G Service Revenue Distribution
3G Service Revenue Forecast
Profiles
*Network Equipment Vendors
Huawei
ZTE
Ericsson
Motorola
Nokia
*Handset Vendors
Nokia
Motorola
Samsung
Sony Ericsson
Definitions

List of Figures
Figure 1. Chinese Operators' Roadmap from 2G to 3G
Figure 2. Chinese Household Phone Ownership, 2002-2004
Figure 3. Correlation Between GDP Growth and Mobile Penetration in China
Figure 4. Percentage of Data Revenue for Japanese Operators
Figure 5. Chinese Operators' Data Revenue as a Percent of Total Revenue, 2004
Figure 6. Decision-Making Tree in China's Telecom Sector
Figure 7. IPR Ownership in TD-SCDMA
Figure 8. Estimated Price Elasticity of Demand for Voice-China Mobile
Figure 9. Market Share of Six Major Operators in Terms of Revenue, 2004
Figure 10. Mobile Market Shares, Dec. 2004
Figure 11. Market Share Comparison Between Green Fielders and Incumbents
Figure 12. China Mobile User Growth and ARPU
Figure 13. Number of Participants in WCDMA Alliance, June 2004
Figure 14. Technology Distribution in Chinese 3G Market, 2010
Figure 15. Chinese Consumer Decision Making Factors when Entering a New Mobile Subscription
Figure 16. Most Important Feature when Choosing a Mobile Phone
Figure 17. Subscriber Base and Penetration Rate, 2005-2015
Figure 18. Subscriber Flow in Scenario 1
Figure 19. Subscriber Flow in Scenario 2
Figure 20. Percentage of 3G Subscribers Out of Total Subscribers-Scenario 1
Figure 21. Percentage of 3G Subscribers Out of Total Subscribers-Scenario 2
Figure 22. Revenue Contribution by Services in Percentage
Report's synopsisAbstract
China's 3G landscape will be largely determined by the Chinese government, not market forces. Given uncertain market demand, fostering a strong domestic telecommunications industry and developing a relatively competitive telecommunication services market are the two primary but often contradicting targets toward which the Chinese government would like to drive 3G in China.
In-Stat forecasts that the number of mobile subscribers in China will reach nearly 610 million in 2009, with the percentage of 3G users ranging from 23–58%, depending on competitive scenarios and operator strategies. The total revenue that Chinese operators can derive from 3G services will be between .4– billion.
This report takes a uniquely honest look at the driving forces behind 3G in China and provides:
- 3G Subscriber Forecasts
- 3G Revenue Forecasts, Market Drivers, and Barriers
- Profiles for Key Infrastructure and Handset Manufacturers Market Shares for Major Operators, 2004 
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